8.31 A New Beginning

HSI October futures have been settled and all investors are looking for any clues of HSI's future behaviors. In the past few months, people has been cheered up by economic green shoots, better than expected corporate earnings, and governments' sticking to their expansionary policies, which set off a huge rally in stock markets from developing countries to developed countries. As equity prices rise, most investors turn cautious and begin to hold back their bullish actions in recent weeks while others become more optimistic. Market is confused. Of course, there are plenty of reasons to be some risk-averse. Firstly, not all economic data pointed to the fact that the recession had ended. Secondly, a considerable number of companies disappointed investors by posting dim half-year earnings or pessimistic forecast of future operations. And thirdly, some governments got down to examine their policies set at the hardest time during the recession, which seemed too expansionary for a recovering economy and might stoke inflation. Investors were afraid that central banks would tighten lending following China central bank's "fine-tuning" practice adopted after domestic lending increased tremendously in the first half of this year. Another sign that worries investors is huge amount of equity financing recently. With a decrease in cash and an increase in supply of equity securities, prices would suffer a downward pressure.

However, according to a report, there is still a lot of money which fled from last year's market collapse and has not returned. Those money managers chose to wait in face of the recent rally, most of whom were so-called long term investors. Besides, although what Chinese governments do lately ( adjusting its policies) was not welcome by the market, it may be in the future because it is a sign that economic observers begin to regard the economy in a normal state.

8.29 张信哲演唱会归来

去听张的演唱会是一个巧合。小学和初中的时候，他的许多歌都耳熟能详，所以我得知他在红勘举办演唱会的时候，没什么犹豫就订了票。老张四十多了，大概以后不会经常举办演唱会了吧，此行就当作一种纪念。想想许多出现在我少年时代的歌手们都已经渐渐淡出了人们的视线，他们去了别处，经历别样的生活。世界在变，而我变成了奥特曼。奥特曼的幸福是打小怪兽，不是听情歌。
爱就一个字 的开场；宽容 爱如潮水 从开始到现在 都很喜欢，一如既往的经典。老张的粤语可是比我好不了多好 嘿嘿～
以前听这些歌的时候很可能是喜欢它们的旋律或者对爱情抱有懵懂的幻想，这次听感受却丰富许多。感情是真的纠结 真的覆水难收。被压抑的感情与被放纵的感情相比，冲动减了三分，其中有一分换成了犹豫而不是软弱，有一分换成了责任而不是逃避，还有一分换成了知足和平凡。

有件事情做得有点唐突 但本意是好的～

开学了。

开学了。

8.28 要开学咯

October HSI futures will be settled this afternoon. The HSI may embrace a new rush and it is highly likely to surge to at least 24000 level in September. Reasons behind: the global economic recovery is further confirmed by US new home sales data; China's continuing commitment to support its economy; Investor sentiment stabilizes after recent adjustment in Hong Kong market and mainland China market; Strong capital inflows into Hong Kong (reflected through strengthening of HKD last week). China mobile (941.hk), which fell to 78 level after it reported worse than expected semi-annual earnings last week, will probably lead this incoming bullish action because of its valuation and plan of issuing shares in Shanghai market.
Hold 17294.hk, expecting a 30% return.

下周就开学了，新的一学期会很忙碌吧。希望自己认认真真地度过港大的最后一年，忙碌也好，压力也好，用心体会过程（搏尽），任何结果都是意外的收获。有些曲子，一个一个单独的音符都质朴得让人会心而笑，把他们穿成一串，却又很不寻常，甚至有让人动容的力量。


老妈来电话了，依旧在在老问题上出了小摩擦。我已经吃过不听老人言的亏，所以在 读书vs工作 的问题上须保持谨慎。

8.19

World stocks continued their falling today China market's lead. Shanghai Composite Index has tumbled to 2769 by close to 20 percent from its recent peak. Investors' mood has turned dimmer everywhere from the US to Asia, as more and more of them started to question the strength of the economic recovery. S&P 500 has rallied nearly 50 percent from its March low, while Shanghai Composite Index and Heng Seng Index almost doubled. The problem is that the indices advanced so fast and market expectations went so high that even one small piece of economic data that seemed unsatisfying may trigger investors' suspension on their optimism on the economy, not to mention China government's updated "fine tuning" policy. Actually, the recent sell-off in China revealed how scared institutional investors are of China's tightening lending and how suspicious individual investors about the "bull market".

Technically, HSI may find its support at 19000 to 19200 level, which means there is still 700 points or more downward to go. SCI have already entered its support level and thus may rebound anytime. The bad news is that the developed world was relatively slower to react to emerging markets' recent adjust. To sum up, HSI may fluctuate within a narrow range in the coming two weeks. Furthermore, as markets calmed down from fear, it's highly likely that we will see another rush in September, sending HSI to 24000 level.

8.11

15873 sold. 941.hk may fluctuate between 90 and 95, waiting for further confirmation on its listing in Shanghai. 5.hk probably will halt its recent aggressive advance until its RSI returns its normal level. Investors turn their eyes onto Bluechips' earning report. For example, 388.hk rose to 152 by more than 4 percent, hinting that people bet on HKEX's better than expected earnings and promising prospect. In my view, 388.hk has already reflected those expectations at its current price and it is likely to disappoint today's traders who chased 388.hk above 150. 700.hk is almost in the same situation.

好好学习 天天向上～

8.7

又到周末，research report写得乱七八糟...郁闷啊...不过宅了近一个月和我的新房间倒是一点一点地建立起了感情 ，重点是培养又宅又红、把学习带进生活的良好习惯 呃...斟一杯冏 自饮～

昨天和老妈飞信 热情洋溢地向老妈问好：“妈 最近忙不？”“忙”“忙啥呀?”"打牌呢" 我就枯萎了...

选课开始。新的一学期就要来了

————小分割线 还未长大———
中移动逆势走强 成交额惊人 预计上试91.5左右阻力线 15873继续持有，待正股价格达到91.5时检讨；很可91.5附近会有短暂调整 之后有可能回落，也有可能继续向上，视乎当时大市气氛；

中石油在9元以上徘徊 成交缩小 处于待变时期 向上或向下都会提供机会 预计波幅在5%以上 跟踪；商品、航运回落，市场担心经济恢复缓慢；今晚美国的就业数据很关键，几乎决定HSI能否守稳20000点。

HSI收于20375，继续于20200至20700的强阻力区间内波动 内地股市开始调整 由于港市先于内地股市调整 所以下周很可能摆脱A股的拖累，向上挑战21000以及21500；港汇保持强势，资金继续流入。需要关注的是内地政策的变化以及港汇变化。